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I am a chartist and a technical trader. I believe that the very first line of analysis is to locate patterns. Line drawing and straight line examination is the standard.
It has been and continues to become the base line tool. Moving averages and range bands are more current developments and are observatory.
Straight line charting has modeled and been used to define patterns and set targets for an awfully long time, and I believe that you can't throw a pile of lumber of a cliff and have it land within the shape of a house. If it looks like house, an individual has been manipulating the lumber.
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Within our Trader Talk Live sessions we chronicled this as it happened and had opportunities to trade the numerous stocks that were doing certain dance steps.
This morning we are right at our predicted target. We moved there inside the first hour and stopped. It has been an hour and it is still there.
Gosh, do you believe that perhaps the traders already knew that 1995-2000 was the limit of the existing pattern and that many traders would be extremely ready and willing to take profits here at an obvious pivot point? Now will they? I don't know.
I am not on the floor. But I don't need to be there to determine the targets. Once they get there, there will be a struggle to test the waters. If the purchasing frenzy will not give way to some shorting or profit taking there could be a test above the mark to see who wants to play.
Either way the pattern speaks volumes to the premise that in the midst of what may seem like randomness there seems to be a guiding hand. Look folks, there is certainly an excessive amount of money on the line not to have serious efforts to create a certain amount of predictability.
Most all indicators, averages, etc., are following and at best interesting after the fact. Some are predictive and highly accurate in reflecting behavior, but Pattern Analysis of the price action and targeting the next likely TEST of the market sentiment may be the closest and most accurate method to get close to the game.
The masses take their cue following the test and subsequent direction has begun and your participation in the end is going to be necessary to move the stock or market on toward the testing point.
Although I do use very few indicators (MACD, WRSI, Stochs) they are consultants and are never the reason I trade. The specific movement across a trigger price, no matter if it agrees with the indicators or not, determines the trade.
Now the indicators I use are highly accurate but guess what folks, they're not as accurate as the price.
However, there is one tool I insist on trading with and that's Candle Sticks. It's not an indicator; it is my hidden camera within the competition's board room. But that discussion is for a different day.
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